Just how bad is the "Solo" box office?

“Solo: A Star Wars Story” is the 6^th highest grossing film of 2018. It has made more money than “Ocean’s 8”, “Ready Player One”, “A Wrinkle in Time”, “Pacific Rim Uprising”, “Tomb Raider”, and “Maze Runner: The Death Cure”. And yet the film has been viewed as a massive failure. Never mind the fact that the film was a critical success and that fans seem to enjoy it. The box office take of “Solo” has proved that not every Star Wars film can be a billion dollar entity. With Disney releasing Star Wars films ever year- it is inevitable that some Star Wars films might only make half-a-billion… or less.

“Solo” has currently taken in about 210 million dollars domestically. This actually compares with some of the more humble MCU entries such as Doctor Strange (232m), Thor Dark World (206m). Solo has actually made a lot more money than the original Thor (181m), the first
Ant-Man (180m) and the first Captain America (176m). So why the doom and gloom?

It is true that the film went over budget. The original directors were replaced and much of the movie had to be re-filmed. It is true that the film opened less than 6-months after “The Last Jedi”. It is even true that there is a toxic sect of Star Wars fandom who do not like the direction of the new films (or perhaps don’t like the fact that there are new films) and these individuals seem to want to ruin it for the rest of us. Yet, most the doom-and-gloom / end-times / Star-Wars-Is-Dead conversation is probably due to the fact that “Solo” will not be the top film of 2018. It is the first Star Wars film to not top the box office in the year of its release. But, with so many movies on Lucasfilm’s “pre-production” list, "Solo" will not be the last.

Let’s jump into the numbers...

Box Office Unadjusted

On this first chart, we see that "Solo" has made less money domestically than all the other live-action films upon their first release, except for “The Empire Strikes Back” (which it overtook earlier this week). Films that "Solo" has performed better than include the 1997 Special Edition versions of the original trilogy, the 2012 3D release of the "Phantom Menace", and the 2008 animated "Clone Wars" film.

*Releases not listed here include the 1982 reissues of “Star Wars” and “The Empire Strikes Back”, the 1985 reissue of “Return of the Jedi”, the IMAX Experience version of “Attack of the Clones” and the overseas box-office numbers for the two made-for-TV Ewok films.

This first chart might even make “Solo” look competitive compared to other Star Wars films, but let’s adjust for inflation to see the real story.

Box Office Adjusted

 

Things seem a little darker when we adjust for inflation. We can now see that “Solo” has made less the half of the “Attack of the Clones” box office take. We also see that the 1997 Special Edition version of Star Wars made more money than “Solo”. A fan who wanted to prove that “The Last Jedi” was a terrible film that caused audiences to lightspeed away from this franchise would use this chart as evidence. But we have to keep in mind that “Solo” had some steep competition when it opened this May. The top film of 2018, “Avengers Infinity War”, was crushing the early-summer box office and “Deadpool 2” had opened just a week before. In current times, most films make the bulk of their money during the first weekend and Solo’s first weekend just did not work out.

Opening Weekend

The opening weekend chart is interesting to look at because it tells a story about how movie-going experience has changed over the past 40-years. The original Star Wars film did not make much during its opening weekend, but grew to be the 2^nd most successful film of all time by the summer’s end. 19-years ago, “The Phantom Menace” made less than fifteen percent of its eventual take in its first weekend. “The Last Jedi” however made more than a third of its overall gross in its opening weekend.

This is how movie-going works in the 21^st century. Most people see the film in the opening weekend or the second weekend. After that the buzz dies down. People figure they can catch the film on a digital release in a few months’ time. In today’s world films that don’t do well on their opening weekend, don't do well at all.

Worldwide Gross against Budget

My final chart will show the real reason why “Solo” was a flop. This chart shows the worldwide take vs. the film’s budget. We know that “Solo” went over budget. The film was the most expensive Star Wars film ever made. Only five films in the history of cinema have ever cost more to make. Many of the most expensive films ever made turn into flops. And like “John Carter” and “Justice League”, “Solo” is one of those films- a box office bomb. When you factor in all costs, Disney lost money making “Solo”. So where does Star Was go from here?

Next Steps

It is obvious that Disney needs a new strategy for their non-episodic Star Wars films. Fortunately, there are a lot of things they can do differently, so that they don’t have another bomb. The most obvious choices are
1) Spend less money making Star Wars films
2) Make fewer Star Wars films
3) Release films during months with low competition

Whatever they choose to do, some fans won’t be happy about it. Some people like seeing a new Star Wars film each year, while others would be happy with one every three years. Some "Original Trilogy" fans might be happy if there were no new Star Wars films.

For me personally, I love the four Star Wars films that Kathleen Kennedy and Lucasfilm have released over the past four years. I want more Star Wars. I am greedy. So maybe Disney produces some films on a slightly lower budget. Maybe they release films only in the winter time. But please, *please* keep the Star Wars coming.