4 Ways to Look at "The Last Jedi" at the Box Office

As “The Last Jedi” enters its sixth weekend at the box office, the film begins to solidify its position in cinematic history. How does it compare to "Rogue One"? Does it stack up to "The Force Awakens"? How about "The Phantom Menace"?

It is interesting to note that some columnists insist that the movie was a Box Office disappointment. To be fair, these writers are probably just trying to earn clicks. After all, the same columnists are already insisting that “Solo: A Star Wars Story” will be the first Star Wars box office bomb (with little real evidence to back this up).

In reality, "The Last Jedi" is a massive success. Here is proof: The Empire Strikes Back earned only 55% of ticket sales compared to the original "Star Wars", which released 3 years prior. Attack of the Clones earned 59% of "The Phantom Menace’s" ticket sales, also 3 years after the fact. The Last Jedi is a different story. Before the end of its run TLJ has already earned 60% of "The Force Awakens" ticket sales and it has done so after only 2 years and it has done so even though “Rogue One” released last December.

         We will probably never see a Star Wars movie be as big of box office hit as “Star Wars”, “The Phantom Menace”, or “The Force Awakens”. After all, “The Force Awakens” was the first Star Wars film after a 10 year hiatus, "The Phantom Menace" was the first after a 16 year hiatus, and "Star Wars"… was a cultural phenomenon. I cannot imagine a scenario where Disney puts the Star Wars franchise on hold for another decade. We probably will never again see another perfect-storm scenario that made those three films the biggest films of their time. But when you consider the reality that "The Last Jedi" will end its run with 70% of "The Force Awakens" box office- it’s kind of miraculous. It should give Disney hope that one Star Wars film per year is not going to oversaturate the market… at least not yet.

Highest Domestic Box Office

1. The Force Awakens               2015             $936,662,225

2. Avatar                                        2009             $760,507,625
3.Titanic                                        1997             $658,672,302
4. Jurassic World                         2015             $652,270,625
5. The Avengers                           2012             $623,357,910
6. The Last Jedi                            2017            ≈$604,000,000
7. The Dark Knight                     2008             $534,858,444       
8. Rogue One                                2016             $525,444,763
9. Beauty and the Beast            2017             $594,902,305
10. Finding Dory                         2016             $486,295,561
11. The Phantom Menace        1999             $474,544,677
12. Star Wars                               1977             $460,998,007

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32. Revenge of the Sith             2005             $380,270,577
64. Attack of the Clones            2002             $310,676,740
66. Return of the Jedi                1983             $309,306,177
83. Empire Strikes Back           1980             $290,475,067


In this first chart we notice that "The Last Jedi" will finish its run somewhere around "Marvel’s The Avengers". It is noteworthy that six of these top ten films are Disney releases and that the last non-Disney film to make this top ten list was 2015’s "Jurassic World". We notice that the original 1977 “Star Wars” film has been pushed out of the top ten this year by “Beauty and the Beast” and “The Last Jedi”. “Star Wars” amazingly, spent over 40 years on the Top Ten Domestic Box Office list and, now that it is gone, the oldest film on the list is "Titanic". Since this list is constantly in flux, there is certainly a change that "Rogue One" will be off of the top ten by 2019, probably after the release of "Episode IX". Furthermore, there will be a day that "The Force Awakens" will no longer reign as #1- although it’s probably safe for the foreseeable future- probably for another decade.

Highest International Box Office

1. Avatar                                       2009             $2,778 million
2. Titanic                                      1999             $2,186 million
3. The Force Awakens              2015             $2,068 million
4. Jurassic World                       2015             $1,671 million
5. The Avengers                         2012             $1,518 million
6. Furious 7                                 2015             $1,516 million
7. Avengers: Age of Ultron      2015             $1,405 million
8. Harry Potter 7: Part 2          2011             $1,341 million
9. The Last Jedi                          2017             ≈$1,296 million
10. Frozen                                   2015             $1,276 million
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23. Rogue One                            2016             $1,042 million
28. The Phantom Menace       1999             $1,029 million
61. Revenge of the Sith            2005             $848 million
77. Star Wars                              1977             $775 million
116. Attack of the Clones         2002             $649 million
166. Empire Strikes Back        1980             $538 million
198. Return of the Jedi             1983             $475 million

            It has become sort of a “known-fact” that Star Wars films don’t compete well on the international market. This "fact" is at least partially true. Most mega-box-office hits make around 60% - 70% of their sales overseas. Recent Star Wars films seem to earn less than 55% of their sales in international markets, and "Rogue One" stands out as an extreme case earning only 49.6%. So, you could say it’s a problem- a problem that Disney has spent time and money trying to fix. On the other hand, you’ve got both “The Force Awakens” and “The Last Jedi” on the worldwide top ten list. Star Wars movies may appeal to Americans more than many other cultures, but there is no doubt that Star Wars is still a massive international success.

Domestic Grosses Adjusted for Inflation

1. Gone with the Wind             1939             $1,804,258,500
2. Star Wars                                1977             $1,590,608,000
3. The Sound of Music             1965             $1,271,769,300
4. ET                                              1982             $1,266,759,200   
5. Titanic                                      1999             $1,210,478,700
6. Ten Commandments           1956             $1,169,830,000   
7. Jaws                                          1975             $1,143,743,800
8. Doctor Zhivago                      1965             $1,108,529,600

9. The Exorcist                           1973             $987,650,600
10. Snow White                         1937             $973,370,000
11. The Force Awakens           2015             $965,467,800
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13. Empire Strikes Back           1980             $876,753,100
16. Return of the Jedi                1983             $839,950,500
18. The Phantom Menace        1999             $806,486,800
46. The Last Jedi                         2017             ≈$604,000,000
58. Rogue One                             2016             $539,743,700
65. Revenge of the Sith             2005             $529,768,500
95. Attack of the Clones           2002             $477,473,400          

Adjusting for inflation is always a good reality check for any film. The only 21^st century film to even come close to breaking into The Top Ten is “The Force Awakens”. That isn’t to say that modern films don’t make money. Dozens of 21^st century films can be found on the top 100 grossing film adjusted-for-inflation list, including a handful from the last decade. The idea that cinema is somehow dying seems a little crazy. In fact, cinema seems to be standing up strong in the face of home video, cable, and streaming. The experience of enjoying a drama or comedy with an audience is an age-old phenomena and I believe that it is an innate element of the human race. Hearing audible gasps during the Admiral Holdo death scene is enough to convince me that there is merit to the crowd experience. “The Last Jedi” will come close to breaking the top 40 films of all time. On a list which includes movies dating back 80 years, top 40 is not so bad, especially after considering my next list.


Domestic Grosses Adjusted for Inflation since 1977

1. Star Wars                                1977             $1,590,608,000
2. ET                                              1982             $1,266,759,200   
3. Titanic                                      1999             $1,210,478,700
4. The Force Awakens              2015             $965,467,800

5. Empire Strikes Back            1980             $876,753,100

6. Avatar                                      2009             $868,974,500

7. Return of the Jedi                 1983             $839,950,500

8. Jurassic Park                          1993             $820,863,000       

9. The Phantom Menace         1999             $806,486,800

10. The Lion King                     1994             $796,077,500

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22. The Last Jedi                        2017             ≈$604,000,000
28. Rogue One                            2016             $539,743,700
32. Revenge of the Sith            2005             $529,768,500                   
50. Attack of the Clones          2002             $477,473,400

            On this list we adjust for inflation once again, but I take out all films released before 1977. There is actually a good reason for this. Films released before the home-video era have an unfair advantage. “Gone With The Wind” is a good example of this phenomenon . The film released in 1939 and its initial run lasted until 1943. If over 4 years in cinemas wasn’t enough, it was re-released in 1947, 1954, 1967, 1974, 1989, and 1998. So that’s why I’d like to ignore films such as “Gone With The Wind”. When focussing on the last 40 years of cinema only, the results are pretty stunning. Within the top nine, every single film is a Spielberg Film, a Cameron Film or a Star Wars Film. As for "The Last Jedi": in the grand scheme of things, "TLJ" beats out exactly three other Star Wars films: last year’s “Rogue One” and Episodes II & III. In other words, "The Last Jedi" is the second most successful 21^st century Star Wars film.

Looking Ahead

            The Month of May will also be an exciting time for the Star Wars box office. “Solo: A Star Wars Film” will be the first Star Wars summer release since 2005. It is the first time a Star Wars film will release only 6 months after a previous Star Wars film. What effect will this have on the “Solo” box office? We’ll find out in a few months!

The Force Awakens Box Office Post 

http://roadto7.blogspot.com/2016/01/5-ways-to-look-at-force-awakens-box.html

Rogue One Box Office Post
http://roadto7.blogspot.com/2017/02/rogue-one-at-box-office-how-does-it-rank.html